Analysis and Forecasts of the Demand for Imported Wine in China

The aim of this study is to investigate the long-term determinants China’s imported wine demand and forecast imports from 2019 2023 using econometric methods. Auto-regressive distributed lag models are developed based on neoclassical economic theory for bottled, bulk, sparkling top five countries origin. empirical results demonstrate that income most important determinant demand, price only plays a significant role in few markets. Substitute complement effects identified between wines different origin other liquids. expected maintain its rapid growth over period. Bottled will continue dominate market. France have largest market share bottled market, Spain be provider bulk wine, Italy hold same position wine. This first use single equation with general specific method rather than system equations estimate more model setting each country improves forecasting accuracy.